Quality control – YES. Tax poverty – no.

Author: Svetla Staykova

Google AI was used in the preparation of the analysis.

To understand the full scale of this regulation, we will make an economic model based on the official just under 5.9 billion individual packages that entered the EU duty-free from China in 2025 and roughly contained about 20 billion items.

We use raw market data to calculate the financial expression of damage and benefits for the three main pillars: citizens, businesses and security.

I. Mathematical calculation of the financial balance

1. Budget benefits (Revenue)

• Direct revenue from customs duties: 20 billion items ×€3 = €€60 billion a year in the common treasury.
• Distribution:
  • €15 billion (25%) remains in Member States’ budgets for customs administration.
  • €45 billion (75%) goes directly to the EU general budget to finance EU programmes, cohesion policy and the NGO sector.

Here we have to clarify that 25% remain in the budget of the country through which the shipments enter, and not the country of the recipient, which is the final destination. This means that if a shipment has to be delivered to Bulgaria, but initially enters the EU through a customs point of another country, then 25% of the duty of this shipment will enter the budget of the other Member State, and not in the budget of Bulgaria, regardless of the fact that it will be paid by a Bulgarian citizen. From here, the benefits to the budget are dramatically diminishing. Since there are no official statistics on how many of the shipments ordered from Bulgaria have entered the European Union through Bulgarian customs or another Member State from experience, I can say that all my shipments have arrived at airports outside Bulgaria, after which they have been transported to Bulgaria. If this is the mass practice, it can be assumed that almost nothing will enter the Bulgarian budget from these new duties, which will be paid by Bulgarian citizens.

2. Damage to the economy (Costs and losses)

• Purchasing power recall: These €60 billion are paid in full out of the pocket of the final European consumer. This is money taken out of the EU’s real internal market.
• Loss of the multiplier effect (Marginal Propensity to Consume): In the economy, each euro spent locally circulates and generates additional turnover (multiplier average 1.5). The subtraction of €60 billion in cash from citizens leads to an indirect loss of more than €90 billion of reduced turnover in local European shops, establishments and services.
• Administrative costs for businesses: Platforms transfer processing to local warehouses, which increases logistics by about 15-20%, which further raises the final prices.
• At the same time, due to the application of a model of limited growth in the European Union and the blind ideological following of unreasonable plans for Net-Zero, European business cannot grow enough and provide competitive prices even after the imposition of additional duties of 3 euros per item. The new fees will not lead to an increase in purchases from European companies and will seize 60 billion euros of purchasing power of consumers from the European market, which will be reflected in a decrease in the turnover of European firms and to a lesser extent of orders from China.
• Another aspect to note is the speculation of European traders who buy Chinese goods at low prices and sell them at times more expensive (in some cases with a 1000% mark-up), which again harms customers and reduces their purchasing power.

II. Depth analysis of reflection

FIXED DUTY OF €3 PER ITEM
│
┌────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────┐
▼ ▼
BENEFITS (Fiscal) DAMAGES (Economic)

• €60 billion. Impact on the budget – €60 billion collected from citizens
  – Funding the EU apparatus – €90 billion drop in local economic activity
  – Artificial protectionism – Reduced disposable income

1. Impact on citizens (Consumers)

• Net loss: The poorest segments of the population (particularly in Bulgaria), who rely on these platforms for affordable essential goods (clothing, household items, school supplies), are hit the hardest.
• Artificial inflation: An item costing €1 rises to €4 (a 400% price increase). As purchasing power declines, citizens will cut back on purchases not only from China but also from local businesses.

2. Impact on EU domestic business

FIXED DUTY OF €3 PER ITEM
│
┌────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────┐
▼ ▼
BENEFITS (Fiscal) DAMAGES (Economic)

• €60 billion. Impact on the budget – €60 billion collected from citizens
  – Funding the EU apparatus – €90 billion drop in local economic activity
  – Artificial protectionism – Reduced disposable income

1. Impact on citizens (Consumers)

• Net loss: The poorest segments of the population (particularly in Bulgaria), who rely on these platforms for affordable essential goods (clothing, household items, school supplies), are hit the hardest.
• Artificial inflation: An item costing €1 rises to €4 (a 400% price increase). As purchasing power declines, citizens will cut back on purchases not only from China but also from local businesses.

2. Impact on EU domestic business

1. Impact on Citizens (Consumers)

• Pure loss: The poorest sections of the population (including in Bulgaria) that rely on these platforms for cheap basic necessities (clothes, household supplies, school supplies) have been hit hardest.
• Artificial inflation: A commodity that costs €1, becomes €4 (400% appreciation). As purchasing power declines, citizens will limit their purchases not only from China but also from local businesses.

2. Impact on domestic business in the EU

• Illusion of protection: The EU argues that the measure protects European traders. In practice, however, local businesses do not earn anything, because its cost (because of expensive energy and regulations) remains high. The customer will not start buying European goods because they are still more expensive; he will simply buy less.
• Digital entrepreneurs hit: Small businesses in the EU that assemble products or use cheap Chinese components for their activities will feel a sharp increase in their raw materials, which will worsen their competitiveness in the global market.

3. Impact on Union security (Geopolitical risk)

This is the most dangerous and underrated aspect of Brussels:

• Internal destabilization through economic weakening: A weak economy gives birth to disgruntled citizens. The seizure of billions of euros from people’s pockets to power the administrative apparatus is intensifying Euroscepticism and social tensions.
• Disagreements between countries: Revenues of €60 billion will not be distributed fairly. Countries with huge ports (Netherlands, Belgium, Germany) will retain their 25% (€15 billion), while end users in poorer countries (like Bulgaria) will pay the full price without their national budgets seeing a serious financial incentive. This will strengthen the economic divide within the EU itself.
• A gift for geopolitical enemies: When the EU deliberately introduces policies of “limited growth” and blocks market efficiency through tariffs, it lags technologically and financially behind the US and Asia. An economically weak, divisive and stagnant alliance is losing its ability to fund modern defense, cybersecurity and protecting its borders. This makes it an easy target for external pressure, hybrid attacks and economic dependence.

Conclusion of the analysis

The measure of €3 per item is a typical example of “legal plunder”. It brings short-term fiscal benefits to the EU budget (€60 billion) but inflicts long-term and irreversible strategic damage to economic fabric. Instead of solving the internal problem – the excessive bureaucracy that prevents European business from being effective – the EU is trying to hide its weakness behind customs barriers. This artificially reduces the purchasing power of the people, weakens the alliance from within and threatens its long-term national and geopolitical security.

An interesting fact is that local business associations have lobbied for the adoption of the new tariffs thinking that they will protect their business in this way without suggesting that this could have a greater negative effect for themselves. That is why independent economic analysis is key for every business. You may not hear what you want, but you will learn what is useful for you.

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